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Market · No. 15

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Daily summary

Weekend wrap: the week ended deeply risk-off, with the S&P 500 down 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 down 5.5% (worst week since Apr '25) as semis slid eight straight sessions.

Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage: US L/S net leverage fell 3.2 pts to 43.7% (0th percentile over 5 years), the largest weekly drop since Liberation Day week; gross rose 0.9 pts to 213.9%.

Flows: single stocks saw the largest net selling in 8 weeks; Info Tech was most net sold (semis 57% of it) while Health Care, Comm Svcs and Staples were net bought, a defensive tilt.

Volatility: VIX hit its highest since July (about 20), VVIX jumped 17 pts Friday, asset managers entered with record-short VIX futures, and over $8bn went into levered ETFs in four days, a record.

Baskets: NeoClouds -24.8%, Optical Networks -21.4%, Memory -16.6% vs Oil +5.5%, Retail +4.7%, Bond Proxies +4.0%. The desk likes buying ex-AI exposure and AI hardware put protection.

Catalysts: earnings season ramps next week; consumer names outperformed on a strong September retail sales beat, with PG and TSCO expected to beat on revenue.

Consensus check: only one report was published today (weekend), so there are no conflicting views to compare.

Highlights
Bearish

S&P 500 -1.9% on week as semis slide eight sessions and hedge funds de-risk sharply

  • Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage: S&P 500 -1.9% and Nasdaq 100 -5.5% on the week (worst since Apr '25) amid AI-trade and credit stress and hotter inflation prints; Semis fell eight straight sessions, longest since May 2006, with MU/SNDK weak.
  • US L/S net leverage fell 3.2 pts to 43.7% (0th percentile over 5 years), the largest weekly drop since Liberation Day week; gross rose 0.9 pts to 213.9%.
  • Single stocks saw the largest net selling in 8 weeks; Info Tech was most net sold (Semis 57% of tech net selling) while Health Care, Comm Svcs and Staples were net bought, a more defensive posture.
  • VIX spiked to its highest since July (about 20) and VVIX jumped 17 pts on Friday; asset managers entered with record-short VIX futures positioning; over $8bn flowed into levered ETFs in four days, a record.
  • Basket moves: NeoClouds -24.8%, Optical Networks -21.4%, Memory -16.6% vs Oil +5.5%, Retail +4.7%, Bond Proxies +4.0%; desk likes buying SPXXAI (ex-AI) and AI hardware put protection.
  • Earnings season ramps next week; Consumer outperformed on a strong September retail sales beat, with PG and TSCO expected to beat on top line.
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