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Market · No. 13

Thu, Oct 15, 2026

Daily summary

Another risk-off day led by AI hardware: indexes ended slightly higher in a technical rebound after Tuesday's panic drop, but sentiment stays defensive as AI financing stress, hot inflation prints and a weak Anthropic growth rate hit semis and neoclouds.

Events and data: Core CPI printed +0.36% m/m vs 0.22% expected (shelter and tech hardware hot) and PPI beat on both headline and core. Anthropic told investors Q3 revenue rose 45% q/q to $16.8B (about 140% growth in Q2), with an 11% operating margin; September ARR is estimated near $70B, below buyside hopes in the high 70s. TSMC guided Q4 revenue 5-6% above Street and lifted FY26 growth to ~44%, but gross margin (66.4%) missed.

Credit and flows: CoreWeave 2032 bonds fell below 80 cents, with CDS implying roughly 58-60% five-year default odds; Gartner warned more than $3.5T of AI infrastructure spend could be impaired by 2030, and data-center financing is described as effectively stopped. Nvidia's CEO said CoreWeave's cost of capital is falling and Nvidia need not support it, and CRWV bounced sharply. Treasuries rallied on AI-driven risk-off (long-bond calls closed for profit); Korean equities saw an eighth straight day of foreign selling.

Sector moves: Tuesday semis -4.5% and neoclouds -10% to -15%; Wednesday opened with memory weakest (SKHY, SNDK) and Asia sharply lower (KOSPI -7.6%, Nikkei -4.9%), then AI hardware was bought back from the lows after TSMC, leaving long lower shadows.

Catalysts and levels: SPX dipped near 7670 and rebounded to about 7738, with 7760 seen as resistance and 7670 as support; Fed Chair Warsh speaks tonight and Friday is monthly options expiration, after which volatility may return (VIX retest of 20 possible). October Anthropic revenue is the next datapoint to watch.

Consensus check: Desk commentary agrees the selloff looks like a shakeout within an uptrend with a likely interim bottom in AI leaders, but disagrees on durability: one view expects weaker names (IREN, CRWV, AAOI) to fade after bounces and advises trimming into rallies, while the institutional wrap stays bearish on the AI-financing and growth-deceleration narrative.

Highlights
Mixed

Technical bounce after panic selloff, but market stays defensive

  • Indexes closed slightly higher in a technical rebound after the prior day's panic drop; sentiment remains risk-off
  • Korean equities saw an eighth straight day of foreign net selling, with funds rotating back to US stocks
  • CPI/PPI upside surprises keep inflation pressure alive; S&P 500 still sits below its 5-day and 10-day moving averages
  • After tomorrow's options expiration, gamma effects fade and volatility may return next week; VIX could retest 20 before month-end, so trimming into rallies is suggested
  • The AI selloff is viewed as a shakeout within an uptrend, not the end of the bull market; TSMC results strong (revenue +51%, net income +69%)
  • CRWV rebounded sharply after Jensen Huang's comments, but the neocloud model is fragile and unsuited to heavy long-term positions
TSMCRWVNVDA
Mixed

AI hardware dip bought after TSMC earnings; bottom likely set but not confirmed

  • Desk commentary says TSMC earnings confirmed extremely strong global AI hardware demand with earnings fundamentals intact.
  • Most AI hardware stocks plunged at the open, triggering a final stop-loss flush of leveraged longs, then were bought back strongly, leaving long lower shadows on daily candles.
  • For leaders such as NVDA, LITE and INTC, a sentiment-driven interim bottom is seen as established, though a one-way rally still needs confirmation from macro rates and positioning.
  • A pullback that holds above today's long-lower-shadow low would confirm the bottom via a successful second test.
  • Weaker AI names (IREN, CIFR, CRWV, AAOI) may bounce sharply at first but fade given heavy overhead supply; rotate into quality AI leaders.
  • SPX dipped near 7670 then rebounded to about 7738 before stalling; institutions show little appetite to chase above 7760 with CPI/PPI risk lingering; holding 7670 keeps the day range-bound, with Fed Chair Warsh's speech tonight and Friday OPEX in focus.
NVDALITEINTCIRENCIFRCRWVAAOITSM
Mixed

Nvidia CEO backs CoreWeave, easing credit fears and narrowing its losses

  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said CoreWeave's strength is growing every day and its cost of capital is actually falling.
  • Huang said Nvidia does not need to provide support to CoreWeave.
  • In early Thursday US trading, CoreWeave's credit risk gauge hit a record, with implied default probability around 60%.
  • CoreWeave shares narrowed their losses as Huang spoke.
NVDACRWV
Mixed

Closed remaining TLT 2028 calls for profit as bonds bounce on AI-driven risk-off

  • One view: closed the final third of a TLT 2028 call position at a profit after being underwater for nearly a month.
  • The bond rebound was driven by money rotating into Treasuries as AI-related stocks sold off.
  • Prefers bonds as a hedge but not long-duration bond ETFs.
  • NVDA showed signs of a failed-breakdown reversal, holding stronger than other AI names.
  • Treasuries and cyclicals rebounded even after a hotter-than-expected PPI; intraday momentum shifts bear watching.
TLTNVDA
Bearish

Hot PPI print seen keeping US equities under pressure

  • One view: headline and core PPI both came in well above expectations
  • Market expected to stay under pressure, with the open extending lower
  • Any intraday technical bounce is seen as unlikely to hold
Bearish

Anthropic Q3 revenue $16.8B (+45% q/q) tops off a weak open; TSMC guide strong but margins light

  • FT/Reuters: Anthropic told investors Q3 revenue rose 45% sequentially to $16.8B (from ~140% growth in Q2), cash-flow positive, operating margin 11%; distillation was 5-7% of revenue.
  • Commentary put September ARR near ~$70B (range $67-75B), below buyside hopes in the high 70s; the $110B year-end ARR figure came from sell-side estimates, not company guidance.
  • Pre-market: QQQ -1.2%, SPX -0.3%, semis -3%, memory weakest (SKHY -7%, SNDK -5%) after Musk said China will make a lot of RAM in 2028.
  • Asia sold off: KOSPI -7.57%, TAIEX -3.41%, Nikkei -4.9%, Hynix -11%, Samsung -10%.
  • TSMC guided Q4 revenue to $52.3-54.3B (about 5-6% above Street) and lifted FY26 growth to ~44%, but Q3 gross margin of 66.4% missed the 67.5% buyside bogey; AI demand commentary stayed strong.
TSMSKHYSNDKNVDAMUAVGO
Neutral

SemiAnalysis: ASML likely building a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonder, negative for Besi

  • SemiAnalysis believes ASML is building a die-to-wafer (D2W) hybrid bonding tool, citing 27 bonding patent families filed Dec 2022-Nov 2024 and a March report of architecture work with Prodrive and VDL ETG.
  • The patented design moves each die on its own holder along a track past inspection, cleaning, plasma, metrology and alignment stations before bonding, lifting station utilization and suiting heterogeneous integration.
  • SemiAnalysis sees ASML's edge in alignment accuracy and particle control, the two factors that set bonding yield, and expects a premium price.
  • It expects advanced logic (TSMC, Intel) to adopt first, which it calls bad news for Besi; it also thinks HBM adoption of D2W hybrid bonding slips to 2029 or later.
  • Open challenges include feed-forward metrology, die-to-wafer contact, adapting non-bonding tools to the track, and loop cleanliness.
ASMLBESITSMINTC
Neutral

SemiAnalysis: ASML likely building a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonder, negative for Besi

  • SemiAnalysis believes ASML is building a die-to-wafer (D2W) hybrid bonding tool, citing 27 bonding patent families filed Dec 2022-Nov 2024 and a March report of architecture work with Prodrive and VDL ETG.
  • The patented design moves each die on its own holder along a track past inspection, cleaning, plasma, metrology and alignment stations before bonding, lifting station utilization and suiting heterogeneous integration.
  • SemiAnalysis sees ASML's edge in alignment accuracy and particle control, the two factors that set bonding yield, and expects a premium price.
  • It expects advanced logic (TSMC, Intel) to adopt first, which it calls bad news for Besi; it also thinks HBM adoption of D2W hybrid bonding slips to 2029 or later.
  • Open challenges include feed-forward metrology, die-to-wafer contact, adapting non-bonding tools to the track, and loop cleanliness.
ASMLBESITSMINTC
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