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Market · No. 11

Tue, Oct 13, 2026

Daily summary

US stocks took a wait-and-see stance today ahead of CPI and ASML/TSMC earnings. AI hardware/semiconductor deleveraging dominated, with all three major indexes closing slightly lower as investors crowded into mega-cap tech.

Premarket: QQQ -70bp, S&P flat; semiconductors -2%, Korea's KOSPI -5.46%, Samsung -8%, SK Hynix -10%, Kioxia -13%, WDC/STX down 5-6%. Desk commentary attributed the weakness to CXMT news and Musk's tweet about China's ability to expand RAM capacity; AI hardware sold off during the session, followed by an afternoon technical rebound and some short covering.

Rating actions: HSBC downgraded ADBE to Hold (price target 267, citing disruption risk from open-source AI clones); Evercore ISI reiterated META at Outperform with a price target of 860, while Pivotal raised its META price target to 930; Morgan Stanley's CIO survey ranked MSFT first in the AI control plane (20%), reiterating Overweight with a price target of 600. Anthropic says new safeguards reduced distillation data by 90-99%.

Flows: One recap compared this pullback to July, attributing it to crowded-trade unwinds, foreign outflows, and forced liquidation of leveraged positions; a fund manager survey ranked long semiconductors as the most crowded trade and an AI bubble as the second-biggest risk; bank earnings were decent but failed to drive gains, with flows concentrated in MAG7.

Catalysts: Wednesday CPI (an upside core CPI surprise would weigh on growth stocks and expectations for rate cuts), ASML/TSMC earnings, AMAT/WDAY investor meetings today, and Anthropic sell-side/investor day tomorrow; Magnificent Seven earnings in the week of October 26 are the main event.

Consensus check: Today's commentary agrees on pressure in semiconductors/memory and a near-term wait for data; it differs on the cause—some lean toward Chinese memory competition (CXMT), others see crowded trades and outflows, rather than Chinese competition, as the main driver.

Highlights
Mixed

Investors await CPI and ASML/TSMC earnings as AI hardware deleverages

  • The three major U.S. indexes closed slightly lower as investors awaited CPI and ASML/TSMC earnings
  • AI hardware stocks sold off before a technical afternoon rebound, partly driven by short covering
  • One view holds that this pullback resembles July's, driven mainly by crowded trades unwinding, foreign outflows, and forced liquidation of leveraged positions rather than Chinese competition
  • South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 6% in one day, with Samsung and SK Hynix falling sharply and foreign ownership hitting a record low; the same view expects a smaller decline than in July
  • Fund manager survey: Long semiconductors is the most crowded trade, and an AI bubble is the second-largest risk; comments from Broadcom's CEO, a canceled AI cloud IPO, and major banks' refusal to accept GPUs as loan collateral signal growing institutional caution
  • Bank earnings were solid, but shares fell even on good results as capital crowded into MAG7; tomorrow's CPI and ASML/TSMC earnings will determine near-term direction
ASMLTSMAVGOGSJPMC
Bearish

Korean memory stocks plunge, dragging down semiconductors; Nasdaq futures -70bp premarket; Anthropic investor day tomorrow

  • Premarket: QQQ -70bp, S&P flat, Russell +20bp, long-end yields down 4-6bp, oil -2%; semiconductors -2%
  • Asia: Korea's KOSPI -5.46%, Samsung -8%, SK Hynix -10%, Kioxia -13%; Taiwan Weighted Index -1.95%; WDC/STX down 5-6%, memory stocks -5%, attributed to CXMT news and Musk's tweet about China's RAM capacity expansion
  • HSBC downgraded ADBE from Buy to Hold, with a $267 price target (previously $310), citing disruption risk from open-source AI clones
  • Evercore ISI sees META's Muse scaling faster than ChatGPT and reiterated OP with an $860 price target; Pivotal raised its META price target from $790 to $930
  • Morgan Stanley's first CIO survey on the AI control plane: MSFT leads with 20%; reiterated OW with a $600 price target
  • Anthropic says new safeguards reduced distillation data by 90-99%; catalysts: AMAT/WDAY investor meetings today, Anthropic sell-side/investor day tomorrow
WDCSTXMUADBEMETAMSFTAMATNVDA
Mixed

Tech closes near flat after Korea memory rout; Anthropic ARR print in focus

  • QQQ -33bps after opening ~-90bps on a Korean memory selloff (KOSPI -5.5%, Hynix -10%, Samsung -8%); semis nearly erased a -3.3% drop into the close
  • Memory stayed weak on CXMT headlines (MU -3.6%, SKHY -3%); semicap lagged (AMAT -6.7%, LRCX -2.7%, ASML -2%) after AMAT's investor day gave 2030 margin targets but no WFE number
  • Rotation into PC/IT hardware and IT services (CDW +5.7%, LOGI +4.5%, CTSH +3%); META +2.6%, ORCL +4.3%
  • Sell-side desk sees the Sept ARR bogey for Anthropic at ~$78-80B vs $65B at July-end; views the number's importance as overstated absent a big surprise
  • JPM desk: semis were the most net-sold industry by HFs last week yet remain a top-2 net exposure; 10Y ~5.22% ahead of CPI (consensus ~3.7% y/y); Oct 28 hike odds ~19%, Dec ~74%
QQQMUAMATLRCXASMLMETAORCLCRWV
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