Weekly outlook: SPX bulls and bears battle over 7800-7820; CPI and TSMC earnings are this week's key events
- SPX traded within 7727-7844 last week, remaining in its 7550-7820 range since August; Q3 earnings season and CPI/PPI could catalyze a breakout
- Next week's outlook (10/12-10/16): SPX >7820 targets 7880-7900; <7780 implies a retest of 7735 or even 7700; extreme downside at 7640-7650 unless TSMC guidance severely disappoints or a major external shock hits
- Calendar: bond market closed Monday for Columbus Day; bank earnings begin Tuesday; September CPI, ASML earnings and Anthropic's pre-IPO investor day Wednesday (10/14); TSMC earnings, PPI and retail sales Thursday, followed by Fed Chair Warsh's IMF speech that evening; monthly OPEX Friday
- In 8 of the 9 CPI releases so far in 2026, SPX's single-day move was <1%; only 6/10 saw a 1.62% decline on a hotter-than-expected print; ASML is raising parts prices for South Korean customers by 10% starting January 2027; a Houthi attack on Riyadh airport could affect oil/gold through geopolitical risk
- Deutsche Bank downgraded US tech to Neutral, saying the rally since 7/29 has peaked while the long-term trend remains intact; Goldman Sachs Prime Book: hedge fund net exposure fell to 1/3/5-year lows, while Mag 7 net exposure hit a record of roughly 22%; positioning favors 'low cash-equity exposure + long calls'
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