Market · No. 7

Fri, Oct 9, 2026

Highlights

Mixed

All three major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 up +1.15% this week; the move looks more like a technical rebound after a pullback than confirmation of a new rally
Average individual-stock swings reached 8.9%, an extreme reading in the top 5% historically; elevated oil prices and long-term Treasury yields weighed on risk appetite
Money market funds drew $166.4 billion in weekly inflows, the highest since 2020, as investors stayed on the sidelines
Next week: Major banks including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs kick off earnings season, while CPI poses a major test
Stocks: HUM on sharply improved Medicare ratings, CCI/AMT, and LITE on AI optical-component capacity fully booked through 2029 rallied sharply; AT&T and Verizon on SpaceX's entry into telecom, and ALHC on a ratings downgrade, fell sharply
View: Stable indexes mask stock-level turbulence; keep position sizes in check

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Bullish

Early trading: QQQ +75bps, semiconductors lead at +2%; OpenAI expects annualized net revenue of at least $70 billion by year-end (about $50 billion at September-end) and is in talks to raise more than $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation
SPCX +4%: agrees to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800MHz spectrum (about $8 billion in cash, according to WSJ), subject to FCC approval; FCC separately authorizes 15,000 mobile-connectivity satellites; AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fall about 6% after hours
LITE +6%: CEO says capacity is sold out through 2029; FSLY +6% (Oppenheimer upgrade); RDDT +2.5%
AAPL -2%: Nikkei Asia reports iPhone 18 Pro order cuts on weak demand
South Korean and Taiwanese markets closed overnight; Japan closed Monday; yields +1-2bps, crude -1%, BTC +2%

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Bearish

YTD: oil +58.5%, US equities +13.4%, global equities +10.6%, dollar +3.9%, gold -4.8%, Bitcoin -6.7%; weekly inflows: cash $166.4bn (largest since April 2020), bonds $33.8bn, equities $12.4bn
Bull & Bear Indicator falls to 8.1 (from 8.8); about 50% of global equity indexes are oversold (most since April 2025); money-market fund assets at $8tn
Hartnett sees the midterms as the likeliest catalyst for a ±10% equity move before 2027; favors risk-off ahead of the midterms given central-bank tightening (54 rate hikes in 2026) and tighter financial conditions; advises against adding tech exposure given already extreme investor bullishness
Calendar: 10/25 Brazil election runoff, 10/27 Israel election, 10/28 FOMC (17% rate-hike odds), 11/3-4 US midterms, 11/29 Spain general election, 12/9 FOMC (81% rate-hike odds), 12/14 G20
Democratic sweep odds at 64% (49% in September), Trump approval at 38%; Bolsonaro's victory in Brazil drives Latin America's shift right, with Brazil's 10-year yield falling 124bps in one day; recommends long-term holdings in gold, commodities and emerging markets

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